Implications of the Military Capabilities of Ukraine and Novorussia

Since the major offensives by the Ukrainian Army (UA) in the Summer of 2014 and the Spring of 2015, every few months rumors and even official announcements about impending attacks have circulated. In the Spring of 2018, there are again expectations and preparations for "The Big One", a full military assault by the UA against the Novorussian Armed Forces (NAF) defending the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics.

Recent developments in Ukraine and abroad, such as the open delivery of weapons by the USA and Canada to Ukraine, the "Re-intigration Law" and political unrest in Ukraine, the continuous and escalating provocations by the USA against Russia and the upcoming presidential elections and FIFA football championships in Russia make the timing seem ripe for a major military offensive against the Republics by the UA. All of this makes the recent predictions of imminent war all the more credible. Most people whom I have spoken with on the Front, both civilians and soldiers, expect that this time the attack will be for real. The boy in the legend falsely cried "Wolf!" many times, but eventually, the wolf did come. And many people here who are qualified to have an opinion say this time the wolf is coming.

 This article will compare the manpower and military arsenals of the Ukrainian Army and the Novorussian Armed Forces, the disparity between them, and the implications of these facts.  The following estimates are based on multiple sources from Ukraine, Russia, the USA, NATO and Europe. Some estimates varied widely between sources but all sources are from 2017 and represent the latest publicly available information. Whatever discrepancies there may be between the estimates and the actual arsenals, manpower and military capabilities of the UA and NAF, it is quite clear the UA enjoys significant advantages over the NAF in every field measured.
We will investigate these advantages in detail, then explore the implications.
(ALL NUMBERS ARE APPROXIMATE)

Ukraine has a landmass of  603,000 square kilometers and a population of  36 million people. (Not counting Crimea and Donbass Republics.) The Donbass Republics have a combined landmass of 30,000 square kilometers and a population of about 6 million people. The "contact line" between the UA and NAF runs 300 Km, from Mariupol to northeast of Lugansk city.  The UA military budget is between $5 and $6 Billion USD per year, (6% GDP) supplemented with military aid from the USA ($350 million/year).


MANPOWER

The UA is the 23rd largest army in the world in terms of manpower. It has 260,000 active military personnel and 80,000 reserves, making it bigger than the armies of France, the UK or Israel.

The NAF has 35,000 soldiers on active duty and another 30,000 in the reserves. This gives the UA a 7 to 1 advantage in active duty soldiers and a 5 to 1 advantage in total active and reserve soldiers. The UA has 100,000 soldiers on the contact line, facing 25,000 soldiers of the NAF, for a 4 to 1 advantage.

Standard military doctrine dictates an assault force should have a 3:1 advantage to successfully defeat dug in defenders, but according to a 1986 survey of 600 land battles from 1600 to 1973 by the US Army Concepts Analysis Agency,  at a 1:1 ratio, attackers won close to 50% of the time, and when the odds were greater than 3:1, attackers won 76% of the time.  

The UA holds an advantage in manpower over the NAF "greater than 3 to 1", between 4 to 1 and 7 to 1.


MAIN BATTLE TANKS (MBT)

Ukraine began 2014 with 83 T-64BM and 700 T-64BV operational MBT's. But since the beginning of the Donbass War, at least 170 T-64 variants were destroyed, and at least 65 were captured by the NAF. This leaves the UA with 530 operational T-64's. The UA has 72 operational T-72 MBT's.  187 T-80's have allegedly been brought out of storage, overhauled and put back into service with airmobile brigades.  The UA may also have up to 16 T-84 MBT's, six being restored and ten added to the 2018 defense budget. This gives the UA a minimum of  602 MBT's and a possible maximum of 785.

According to the Kiev Post, quoting UA military intelligence sources, as of March 2017, the NAF has 300 MBT's. Like the UA, these are mostly T-64 variants.

This gives the UA a minimum advantage of 2 to 1 in MBT's with a numerical superiority of 300 tanks.


INFANTRY FIGHTING VEHICLES (IFV) & ARMORED PERSONNEL CARRIERS (APC) 

The UA has about 6,000 IFV's and APC's, including 1,198 BMP-2's and 100 modernized BMP-1U's.
Other UA IFV's include 458 BRM-1K armored recon vehicles, 100 BMD-1 and -2's, as well as 1,000 BTR APC's of different variants, and 1,000 BRDM armored scout cars. The most common UA APC is the MT-LB, estimated at 2,300 units.  The UA also has 120 US Army armored Humvees and 20 British Army SAXON Armored Command Center vehicles. Canada has also donated 35 SHREK and SPARTAN APC's to the UA.

The NAF is estimated to have about 800 IFV's and APC's.

The UA has a greater than 6 to 1 advantage in IFV and APC's. With a numerical superiority of about 5,000 units.


ROCKET ARTILLERY 

The UA has 90 TOCHKA-U tactical ballistic missiles, and has used some of them against the Donbass Republics. The TOCHKA-U has a range of 120 Km and a payload of 1,000 pounds. The UA also has 80 SMERCH 300 mm Multiple Rocket Launchers, and 110 URAGAN 200 mm MRL's, and 450 GRAD 122 mm MRL's.

The NAF has 200 GRAD MRL's, and zero TOCHKA-U, zero  SMERCH,  and zero URAGANS.

The UA has a >3 to 1 advantage in Rocket Artillery, as well as advantages in range and payloads, with a numerical superiority of  >500 units.


HEAVY ARTILLERY 

The UA has 297 152mm self propelled howitzers, 247 122mm self propelled howitzers and 99 203mm self propelled guns.  They have 696 152mm towed guns and 443 122mm guns. This is a total of 1,782 artillery pieces of 122mm to 203mm caliber. The UA also has 575 towed anti-tank guns of 85mm to 125mm.

The NAF has about 630 artillery guns of various calibers and configurations.

The UA has a greater than 3 to 1 advantage in Heavy Artillery, with a numerical superiority of about 1,150 pieces.



AIR FORCE AND AIR DEFENSE ARTILLERY AND MISSILE SYSTEMS

The Ukrainian Air Force currently has a total of 238 operational aircraft, including 39 fighters and 66 ground attack fixed wing aircraft. They have 89 transport aircraft and and 87 helicopters, of which 34 are attack helicopters. the remaining 40 aircraft are trainers, which can also be used in attack and reconnaissance missions.

The UA has 275 SA-8 and SA-13 short range air defense missile systems. They have 70  SA-19 "Grison" air defense artillery guns, and 20 ZSU-23-4 anti-aircraft guns. They have over 1,000 ZSU-23-2 anti-aircraft guns, which are also deadly in a ground attack role. That is a total of 345 air defense missile systems, and over 1,000 ZSU-23 systems in 2 and 4 gun configurations.

The NAF has a small number of SA-8 and SA-13's, MANPADS, and about 400 ZSU's in different configurations, mostly ZSU-23-2's for ground attack missions.  The NAF has no air force.

The UA has a (minimum) 3 to 1 advantage in air defense artillery.


SUMMARY  - UA VS NAF

Manpower - 4 to 1, with 75,000 more men on the contact line, 210,000 more men in total.
Tanks -  more than 2 to 1, with minimum 300 more.
IFV/APC's - 6 to 1 with more than 4,000 more.
Rocket Artillery - 3 to 1, with more than 420 more.
Heavy Artillery - 3 to 1, with 1,150 more.
Missile Air Defense - 5 to 1, with 345 more.
ZSU-23 cannons - 2.5 to 1, with 620 more.

The UA has major advantages over the NAF in every field measured, of at least 100%, minimum 2 to 1, and as much as 6 to 1.


What can be surmised from the facts that the UA already has a decisive advantage over the NAF, and yet A) they fail to make their move, and B) they continue to receive arms and training from NATO and the West? Quite simply that the UA is not preparing to fight the NAF, they are being prepared to fight Russia.

Vladimir Putin has openly stated that Ukrainian genocide and ethnic cleansing against the people of Donbass "will not be allowed", which clearly means the Russian Army will intervene in the case of a large scale attack. In fact, they have no choice. The anti-Russian sentiment in Ukraine has reached a rabid intensity, and there truly would be genocide committed by Ukrainian nazis in Donbass if they were allowed to overrun the NAF defenses. The people and government of the Russian Federation will never stand by and watch the crimes of the German nazis repeated by Ukrainian Banderists against ethnic Russians in the 21st Century.  This is not only a moral and historical imperative, it is a matter of self defense.

There can be no doubt that the US government has absolute control over the Kiev regime. The US flags lining the corridors of the SBU in Kiev are a potent symbol of it. The futile response to Sakashvili's illegal re-entry to Ukraine, the appointment of US citizens to top posts in government and state industry, the total dependence of Kiev on Western "loans" which can and will never be paid back, (intending to keep Ukraine in perpetual debt slavery) are the proof of it, of the master and slave relationship between the USA and Kiev. Ukraine, the nation, the people, and especially the military, are being forced into a war they cannot win, as cannon fodder and sacrificial sheep, in order to turn their once proud and prosperous nation into a failed state on the Russian border.  A European Libya. This is what Nuland's oft-quoted "$5 billion" was invested for, as well as the IMF's $13 billion. To force Russia into a war on its own border. And to try to turn world opinion against Russia when it is forced to defend itself and its people.  

According to people here who are in a position to know, between now and the end of the FIFA soccer championships to be held in Russia in June and July of this year, Ukraine's western masters will order a full-scale attack on the Donbass Republics by the Ukrainian Army. It will be a blitzkreig along the entire Front, from Mariupol to Lugansk. The strategy will not to be to seal the borders as in 2014, but to first occupy the cities of Gorlovka, Donetsk and Lugansk themselves. These three major cities are all directly on the front lines, and a ukrop advance of a mere dozen kilometers will put them in the heart of all three cities. Enmeshed with civilians and critical infrastructure, the UA will consider themselves immune to Russian artillery and airstrikes.

But the Russian airstrikes and artillery will be coming, with pinpoint precision. And so will the Russian Army.  And not just into Donbass.  Perhaps a "rogue unit" of Pravy Sektor will send a couple of 122 mm mortars across the Russian border near Lugansk, or some Azov berzerker will do the same near Mariupol. Even if they don't, Russia will have more than enough justification for a full military intervention. "R2P" will be coming back to haunt the Neocon nazis, with "Shock and Awe" in full effect.  "WMD's"? WMD's  mean "NBC". "Nuclear, Biological and Chemical". Biological...
It is well known that the US military operates multiple bioweapons labs in Ukraine - in Odessa, Vinnytsia, Uzhgorod, Lviv (three), Kharkiv, Kyiv (four), Kherson and Ternopil. The US Air Force's recent collection of Russian DNA is, in fact, a legitimate justification for intervention against US bioweapon production in Ukraine.  Let's consider what this attack and subsequent intervention and liberation will look like.

The ukrop offensive will begin at dawn, after a long night of heavy artillery attacks on NAF front line and second line positions all along the Front, from Lugansk to Mariupol. As the ukrop troops and armor advance toward front line NAF positions, ukrop Smerch, Uragan and 152mm howitzers will open up on the 3rd line reserve barracks of NAF troops in the city centers. But our second and third line troops will have already moved out the night before, because the ukrops cannot make a move that we do not know about days in advance.  The ukrops will meet heavy resistance on the front line positions. The NAF will not surrender or retreat, and while many positions will be overrun due to the massive advantages of ukrop arms and numbers, breaking through the front line will be a costly and difficult undertaking. The second and third lines of defense will have taken up their combat positions in their own hometowns, on territory they know intimately, and which has been prepared, like the soldiers themselves, for urban combat.

Twelve hours after the ukrop offensive begins, the Russian liberation will begin. There will have been enough atrocities and civilian casualties in the first half day to justify Russia's reaction to the world.
Sergey Lavrov and Vasily Nebeznya will have a busy few days, but the Russian MOD will not be waiting on the results of their work. The MOD will be showing the results of their own.

Within 24 hours, the Russian and Novorussian Armies will control Lugansk, Mariupol,  Kharkov and Kherson. At the same time, airborne troops will take control of the Ukraine/Polish border. Within the next 48 hours, they will control Donetsk, Odessa and Kiev. There will still be pockets of nazi resistance, but the Russian Army knows how to deal with that.

The military campaign will be intense, but over quickly. Nazis and war criminals will be rounded up and dealt with according to their crimes. Some will require only "re-education", others will spend the rest of their lives rebuilding what they destroyed. Criminal oligarchs such as Kolomoisky and Akmetov will face prison and have their assets nationalized. Though Ukraine and Russia do not have capital punishment, justice will be done. The reunification of Ukraine and Russia, politically, economically, socially and militarily will begin.

The US government and its owners may howl about "Russian aggression" and "national sovereignty", but their hypocrisy will be more than evident. Europe will not be willing to risk itself in an actual shooting war with Russia, nor will it be willing to support nazi war criminals against Russian liberators. While the fascists who control the USA and Canada may be willing to go to war with Russia to "defend Ukraine", a war without Europe's support will be logistically impossible for them. Faced with a choice between Russia's fait accompli in Ukraine or a third world war, even the pro-nazi lunatics in the West will make the only sane decision.

So, in the end, Ukraine will return to the Russian family, to the rightful place it has occupied for 1,000 years, and the cynical experiment in 21st Century fascism will meet its just desserts. And afterwards, Russia, and hopefully, the world, will be on guard against those who would attempt to turn brother against brother and revive the vilest political philosophy the world has ever known.
















 













 

Trump, Golstein and "The Saker" - Three Stooges plus 1

"Truth cannot emerge from bullshit, and the truth is the truth, whether you like it or not. The truth does not care whether you like it or not, and neither do I."  - Russell "Texac" Bentley

I have read a couple of articles about Trump in the last few days, from the so-called "alternative media". Specifically, Vladimir Golstein's "Trump is Liberating Us From The Empire's Lies", and "The Saker's" "The Good News about the Trump Presidency: Stupid Can Be Good." Well, if "The Saker" is correct, both of these articles can be very, very good. Because the premise of both articles is very, very stupid. So stupid I had to re-read them both and ask myself if they could be satire. And indeed they are. But the idiots (and liars) who wrote them, and the many fools who read and applauded them don't realize it. But these are more than stupid satires. They are fucking lies.

I first want to say that anyone who "still believes in Trump" is as worthy of ridicule as any adult who seriously says they still believe in Santa Claus bringing presents down the chimney on Christmas Eve. Yes, Trump is (perhaps a little) better than Clinton, and yes, the depth of stupidity of anyone who would even for a second consider "President Oprah" is beyond measure and beneath contempt, but for some reason, there are still people who believe in Santa. I mean Trump. And that's stupid, and stupid is not good...

Why? How can this be? How can people still be so stupid as to overlook the countless crimes and lies of Trump in just his first year? Probably due in large part to the scribblings of dudes like Golstein and "The Saker", who claim the mantle of alt-progressive "intellectuals" while still towing the party line of the Establishment, and who actually still support Trump with drivel like "Trump the Liberator" and "Stupid Can Be Good." How stupid do you have to be to believe (or write) either of these propositions?  I do not intend to deconstruct these articles line by line, just the ideas and messages behind them. But suffice to say every line in both is a joke. Either you get it or you don't. 
And remember, not just a joke, a fucking lie. And lies are not funny.

If "Stupid can be good", exactly how stupid do you have to be to be "good"? Stupid enough to overlook the reality of Trump's continuation and escalation of the criminal wars in Syria and Donbass, his insane attempt to re-ignite war in Korea, and his new nuclear doctrine - first use and smaller "easier to use" bombs. All of these can lead directly to a Third World War, literally the end of Humanity. For starters. But as Trump the smarmy huckster himself might say, "But wait, there's more!" His criminal tax break to the oligarchs and corporations, his escalation of arms sales, his appointment of malignant scum like Nicky Haley, Steve Mnuchin and Jeff Sessions to positions where they can and will do immeasurable harm. His decision to "recognize" Jerusalem as Israel's capitol, contravening history and justice and outraging world opinion. What's "good" about a dangerous and loud-mouthed buffoon whose stupidity offends the world and shames every decent American with his every utterance and tweet? 

And as for "Trump the Liberator" liberating us from lies, I wonder if Golstein is talking about the same Trump I am. Because I am talking about the Trump whose every single campaign promise was a lie, the same Trump who lied when he recently took credit for defeating ISIS in Syria and defeating the German nazis in the Second World War, raping history and the truth with his despicable bullshit,  trying to rob Russia of the rightful honors they earned with their blood, courage and sacrifice. Every move Trump has made, his every tweet and utterance, has been a debacle and a disgrace, and the exact opposite of the truth. People can be forgiven for voting against Hillary Clinton, but anyone who says they "still believe in" Trump is either an idiot or a liar. Or both. And I say Trump, "The Saker" and Vladimir Golstein are both. Idiots and liars.

All three are the controlled opposition, professional bullshit artists of the lowest order, fake rebels, phony populists, who sucker those who are of good hearts but simple minds. They are the political and moral equivalent of the pimps who haunt the bus stations in New York and L.A., waiting to "help and guide" innocent naifs who are seeking direction in a scary and confusing world.  They are the Orwellian opposite of what they pretend to be. Literally - what is the difference between "Stupid Can Be Good" and "War is Peace" or "Freedom is Slavery" ?  Is not the meaning of the phrase "Stupid Can Be Good" exactly the same as "Ignorance is Strength"?  Isn't it?! ISN'T IT?! But the impact is not exactly the same. It is worse.  Because stupidity is worse than ignorance, and "The Saker" posts his vile motto as a political fact. It is the opposite of the truth in real life, not in a book. And real idiots believe it.

                                                                                 From 1984

And as for Golstein's "Trump the Liberator", I am reminded of the portraits the German nazis brought with them to Russia, Belarus and Ukraine in the Great Patriotic War...

                                                                            "Hitler The Liberator"

Pseudo-alternative pseudo-intellectuals like Golstein and "The Saker" and phony populists like Trump perform a very important function for the fascist oligarchy that owns and controls them. They perpetuate the lie that there is any difference in who gets elected in the USA, that elections in the USA make any difference at all, that the USA still has anything to do with "democracy".  Only an idiot could believe these lies. But too many idiots do. Because it is easier, safer and more comfortable (for the moment) to do so. Only an idiot can fail to see the decline the USA has been in for the past 50 years, and can believe it will ever be changed by voting for a Trump or Oprah to "liberate" us. And only an idiot can fail to see where this road to perdition will finally lead.

As Emma Goldman said, "If voting changed anything, they wouldn't let us do it." And Einstein defined insanity as "Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result."

Only idiots and self-deluded cowards vote in the USA anymore. It doesn't change shit. The primaries are rigged, the machines are rigged, the count is rigged. If by chance the vote was so overwhelmingly against Clinton in the last election that the people who rule the USA were not able to appoint their chosen minion as President, you can be sure, they will not let it happen again. And they have shown that they have complete control over the eunuch buffoon in the White House, so what's the difference anyway? Voting in the USA is political masturbation, an exercise in self-deception and futility. And as for the stooges who tell you that Trump is a liberator or that stupid is good, they are liars, and only perpetuate the deception and futility, and confuse and misdirect those who are sincerely seeking the truth. If you believe Trump, Golstein or "The Saker", you might as well believe what you see on FOX News or CNN. Or believe in Santa Claus.

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                                                                                 P.S.

And as long as I'm winning friends and influencing people with my tact, diplomacy and charm, I might as well mention one more "Comrade", an alleged "Donbass war journalist and humanitarian",
George "G.H." Eliason. 

I first became aware of Eliason back in the Summer of 2015. He was doing a fund-raiser on Indie Go Go for $4,500, to buy a camera and open a bakery in Lugansk. It was clear he had actually been in the LNR in 2014, but I found no evidence or indication other than his fund-raiser that he was still here. I contacted him via social media and asked to meet. Either he could come to Donetsk or I could go to Lugansk. He replied that he could not come to Donetsk because it was "too difficult to cross the checkpoints" (between LNR and DNR, not the Republics and Ukraine.) This seemed odd, but I offered to come to Lugansk and meet, and he told me he was too busy. When I asked for proof he was still in Donbass, he sent me photos of him here in 2014. When I pointed out that the photos showed people in winter clothing and it was July, he got offended and cut off communication. 

I checked all his social media - his VK, his FB, his Twitter and his Quora.  He is still active on all, but I could find no evidence that he is still in Donbass or was even here when he ran his fundraiser more than 2 years ago, or has been here since. But according to his recent article "Tale of 2 Ukraines" posted a couple of weeks ago, he's still here. I'm not saying he's a liar, but I am saying I'd like to see some proof. 

He got over $2,500 from his fund-raiser for the camera and bakery, but I know for a fact he never opened or sponsored a bakery in Lugansk or anywhere else in Donbass. He wrote in is final update on Indie Go Go that "The camera is in hand, set up properly, and ready to go." But I have been unable to find a single video or even photo he has posted from Donbass that can be verified as his. I have friends (more than one) in Lugansk, and specifically in Prizrak, and they and everyone they have asked there have never heard of George Eliason or an American "war journalist and humanitarian" living there. I can tell you from my own personal experience that Americans are quite rare in Donbass, and tend to be noticed wherever they go here. Does this seem strange to anyone besides me?  

I don't care if Eliason kept the money for the camera and bakery two years ago, that's between him and his donors, and I didn't donate. But if he says he's a war correspondent and humanitarian living in Donbass and he's actually not here, then he's not a war correspondent or a humanitarian, either. He's a fucking liar. And I AM a war correspondent and humanitarian living in Donbass, and I can damn well prove it. So I am asking Eliason to do the same. Prove it. Because if he can't, then he's not here, and he IS a fucking liar, and he discredits me, all real correspondents and humanitarians in the Donbass Republics and all the supposedly progressive and credulous sites (including "The Saker") that post his writings. Because if he's not here, what he writes is bullshit, and a LOT of sites have posted it. 

Of course, I could be wrong about Eliason. It's not likely, but it is possible. I encourage him or anyone else to publish proof he's in Donbass, and I will eat my words and publicly apologize to him and anyone else I have offended by questioning his veracity.  But if I was a gambling man, I would not bet on me being wrong. And, in fact, I am a gambling man. I'm taking quite a risk, of looking like a real asshole and fool if I am wrong. But I am willing to take that risk, because speaking truth to phony "comrades" is just as important (and almost as risky) as speaking truth to power. And speaking truth is what I do, it's my job. So prove me wrong, or face the truth, even if you don't like it, 
or me. Because the truth is the truth, whether you like it or not.

The War in Donbass 2018 - Straightening Out "The Saker"

I recently read the article "2018 - War or No War" on the Vinyard of The Saker site.  Leaving aside his remarks on other areas, I find his opinion of the situation in Donbass irritatingly erroneous, and so unjustifiably pessimistic as to be bordering on the treacherous.  I tried to elucidate the situation in the comment section of his blog, in a very diplomatic way, but he refuses to post my comments. So I will post my opinion of his opinion here on my blog, not pull any punches, and post his reply if he has the cojones to make one.

[ He doesn't like me since I called him out back when Motorola was killed. He was one of the dangerous idiots who was pushing the ukrop-backed "Russia/Zaharchenko killed Motorola" theory. There was, (and is) exactly zero proof or logic behind that theory, but it was the ukrop theory from day one. When a supposed "comrade" starts pushing the  same line as ukrop nazi officials and trolls, one has to wonder if they are really that stupid or if there's an underlying motive. I wonder the same about "The Saker's" pontification about the chances and consequences of war in Donbass in 2018. But I'll be happy to straighten his ass out. Again.]

According to his own exact words, "The Saker" sees the chance of another major ukrop offensive against Donbass in 2018 as "Medium" and the risk, "Low", from the Neocon (US) point of view. The possible outcomes, again from the neocon point of view, are "1) Ukrops win, Russia is defeated, US shows its power. 2) Novorussia wins, Russia is accused of invading Ukraine, and 3) Novorussia loses and Russia intervenes, A neocon dream come true."  So, after publishing and promoting the Neocon point of view, "The Saker" then goes on to write his own personal view. And I quote - "The way I see it, in all three cases the AngloZionist prevail though clearly option #2 is the worst possible outcome and option #3 is the best one. In truth, the AngloZionists have very little to lose in a Ukronazi attack on Novorussia." Again, one has to wonder about this incomplete and erroneous "analysis", and especially the conclusion - is the writer really that stupid or is there an underlying agenda?

This dude is pushing the defeatist line that "in all three cases the Anglozionists win", that "Option #2 (Novorussia wins) is the worst possible outcome" and "#3 (A neocon dream come true) is the best", and that the nazis "have very little to lose" in an attack on Novorussia. THESE ARE HIS EXACT WORDS!  He is literally saying Novorussia (and Russia) cannot win, and the nazis have little to lose by attacking us. Whose fuckin' side is this dude on?!  The last time Russia faced such an existential threat as we do today was in the Great Patriotic War, in which defeatism such as "The Saker's" was dealt with by firing squad.  Oh, for the good old days...

On behalf of Novorussia, my country, where I live, and which I fight to defend, I and my friends and comrades here would like to say to "The Saker" and his credulous sycophants, "Spasiba bolshoy, mazavagas! With friends like you, who needs enemies?" And I'll also be happy to straighten your asses out as to what's really happening here, what is most probably going to happen, and what the outcome will be. Since you obviously have no clue.

First, my qualifications for having an opinion - I'm not some dude from Florida with mysterious or perhaps mythical (or perhaps treacherous) "connections to US intelligence", I am a soldier in the Novorussian Armed Forces and a citizen of the Donetsk People's Republic. I have been here full time since 2014, was in frontline combat positions as recently as two months ago (as a soldier) and in frontline civilian areas two weeks ago, reporting on ukrop war crimes.  My opinion is based on firsthand experience, what I see with my own eyes, and my own personal contact with people who live at the Front, and with the soldiers who defend them there.  

The major ukrop offensive is inevitable in 2018. Not the "Frog jump pseudo strategy that is already happening", but a real all-out war offensive, even bigger than the offensive of Summer 2014.

The political circus in Kiev is not sustainable until the ukrop elections of 2019. With the antics of (now convicted) stateless fugitive Sakashvili and Poroshenko's single digit approval ratings, a genuine civilian uprising or a military coup by actually patriotic ukrainian officers are both very real possibilities (completely overlooked by the Saker) that can only be precluded by an all-out war in Donbass.
The clock is ticking in Kiev.

The Russian Presidential elections in March  and the FIFA football championships in June/July 2018 are both major distractions that would complicate a Russian response to a ukrop attack immensely. These are strategic opportunities for our enemies, the likes of which will not occur again in the operational timetable of the Donbass War. The clock is ticking in Russia.

Though the USA still has its Canadian lapdog, Europe is becoming less and less enamored by the failed state on its borders. While the massive influx of Ukrainian toilet cleaners and prostitutes may have some utility or appeal to certain strata of European society, the instability and threat of another major war engulfing Europe give even EU fascist lackeys pause. The longer the delay, the less support from Europe. The US needs to start the war soon, and drag Europe into it by presenting a fait accompli before Europe comes to its senses and officially stands up against the ukrop nazis and their US masters. The clock is ticking in Europe.

Is the clock ticking in the USA? I don't know, I don't live there. But I think so. Maybe ask "The Saker"... He might be qualified to have an opinion about that.

Also, the recent decision by Trump (and Canada) to send weapons to ukrop nazis can only be seen as a green light for war.  There are about 100,000 nazis on the ukrop side of the line, being continually reinforced by Western mercenaries and special forces, as well as by the US-backed ISIS cannibals who have been run out of Syria and Iraq, evacuated by the USA and brought to Ukraine. These nazis, mercs and terrorists are not there for a picnic, and they will not simply withdraw back to bases in Western Ukraine. They are here to attack, and that is what they are going to do in 2018.  The chance is not "Medium", as "The Saker" sees it, it is actually inevitable. And anyone who pins their hopes on Trump having the intelligence or integrity to stop this war can only be laughed at.  As, of course, can all, like "The Saker", who naively thought Trump would be any different than the USA's Presidential Parade of Clowns  going back at least 50 years now.  Trump the hapless and impotent shrinking violet, who talks big but is incapable of doing shit. The female version of Hillary Clinton.

So, yes, the war IS coming in 2018, and probably sooner than later. The Russian Presidential elections in March will (incorrectly) be seen as a golden opportunity by the nazis, and if they chicken out (as usual) then, they will have another, better, and final opportunity during or right before the FIFA championships, which is when I predict the attack on Donbass will come, along with simultaneous major terrorist events inside the Russian Federation. So, the war is coming. What will happen?

I can tell you from my contact with both soldiers and civilians who live on the front lines in Donbass that we are ready. And not just "ready" in the sense of being prepared, but also ready to get this over with. The predominate sentiment among those who have been and will be most effected by the war is that "The sooner it comes, the sooner it will be over. So, the sooner, the better."  And they are correct.

I do not know what the sentiment is among the patrons of fancy restaurants on Pushkin Boulevard, or among those for whom the war is a comfortable and profitable business, because I do not move in those circles, and they are only a very small minority here. But for the vast majority of the patriot citizens of the Republic, who understand the war IS coming, and what it will entail, we are prepared, and grimly determined to meet the fascists head on, and to teach them the lesson our grandfathers taught theirs back in 1945.

As for what the war will be like - I too have anonymous sources, in the military of the DNR and also from... "elsewhere". These guys know what the war will be like because they are the ones who will personally fight it. And win it. First, when the big ukrop attack comes, it will not be a surprise to anyone, except perhaps "The Saker" and his fans. But the Novorussian Armies, and "our friends", will know well in advance the exact time and place and every detail of the plan. And we will be ready and waiting. Of course, the initial assault will cause mass casualties among our defenders on the frontline positions and among civilians living near the Front. Among the NAF soldiers on frontline positions, 50% casualties are expected within the first 12 hours. The deaths will be in the thousands.
So be it. This is war.

But this is war of the full military might of a national army against civilians and former citizens. It will provide the moral, political and practical justification for a total military response from the Russian Federation. Vladimir Putin himself has said more than once that this will indeed be Russia's response, and Vladimir don't lie. It will be a war between the Russian and Ukrainian armies, and it will be over in 48 hours at the most.  Plenty has been written about it, and friends and enemies agree, there is no doubt about the military outcome of the conflict. Imagine a street fight between Vladimir Putin, who holds black belts in several martial arts, and Poroshenko, a pampered, drunken, cowardly buffoon. It would be like that. That quick and that decisive, and the loser will never stand up again.

So, no serious person can question the military outcome, but what of further political and economic considerations? From the Russian and Novorussian perspective, it is the best possible outcome. Having a foreign-controlled failed fascist state on the borders (of Russia and Novorussia) is truly an existential threat. Like a gangrenous wound, it will not get better, and must be dealt with. Like we said, "the sooner the better."  Did the successful and elegant military intervention in Syria cause political backlash against Putin? Hardly. It was wildly popular at home, and increased Russia's stature politically and militarily around the world.  And in spite of what "The Saker" and his neocon buddies might think, the liberation of Ukraine will do the same, only more so.  It will stabilize and de-nazify the failed state of Ukraine, and re-integrate Ukraine into the Russian orbit where it belongs.

"The Saker" says open intervention will be a "neocon's dream come true", "NATO will have a purpose, and it will start  "Cold War 2.0".  Perhaps he didn't get the memo, but the New Cold War started 4 years ago, and has continued to be escalated by neocon war-mongers in every way possible ever since.  Does he think that if Russia allows Ukraine to continue to fester, NATO won't continue escalations and provocations?  That certainly seems to be what he is advocating. Fortunately, the people who count, in Russia and Novorussia, neither need nor heed his advice.

And far from Russian intervention being "Low Risk" for neocon fascists, it will be the beginning of their end. When clowns like Trump and Haley try to rally international support for further sanctions against Russia for a successful and clearly necessary move, that will be the moment the EU rats will jump the sinking ship of Empire. Perhaps somewhat for the clear moral implications, but much, much more so for the practical implications. Russia will have won the war against ukrop fascism before Trump can even tweet about it, and after the fact, all Trump will be able to do is tweet about it. And who wants to side with a loud-mouthed, whining loser?

So, in summary, yes, the war is coming, yes we will win it, locally and on the global scale, politically, economically and militarily.  And Russia will not only be on the winning side of the war, we will be on the right side of morality and of history.  The US/Anglozionist Empire will soon be flushed from history, and their citizens will reap the consequences and just deserts that inevitably befall fools, cowards, the self-deluded, and willing slaves. 2018 will be a decisive year. We are already at war. We are already winning, and we will win. May God protect the innocent, and may the rest of us get everything we deserve.