Saturday, January 6, 2018

The War in Donbass 2018 - Straightening Out "The Saker"

I recently read the article "2018 - War or No War" on the Vinyard of The Saker site.  Leaving aside his remarks on other areas, I find his opinion of the situation in Donbass irritatingly erroneous, and so unjustifiably pessimistic as to be bordering on the treacherous.  I tried to elucidate the situation in the comment section of his blog, in a very diplomatic way, but he refuses to post my comments. So I will post my opinion of his opinion here on my blog, not pull any punches, and post his reply if he has the cojones to make one.

[ He doesn't like me since I called him out back when Motorola was killed. He was one of the dangerous idiots who was pushing the ukrop-backed "Russia/Zaharchenko killed Motorola" theory. There was, (and is) exactly zero proof or logic behind that theory, but it was the ukrop theory from day one. When a supposed "comrade" starts pushing the  same line as ukrop nazi officials and trolls, one has to wonder if they are really that stupid or if there's an underlying motive. I wonder the same about "The Saker's" pontification about the chances and consequences of war in Donbass in 2018. But I'll be happy to straighten his ass out. Again.]

According to his own exact words, "The Saker" sees the chance of another major ukrop offensive against Donbass in 2018 as "Medium" and the risk, "Low", from the Neocon (US) point of view. The possible outcomes, again from the neocon point of view, are "1) Ukrops win, Russia is defeated, US shows its power. 2) Novorussia wins, Russia is accused of invading Ukraine, and 3) Novorussia loses and Russia intervenes, A neocon dream come true."  So, after publishing and promoting the Neocon point of view, "The Saker" then goes on to write his own personal view. And I quote - "The way I see it, in all three cases the AngloZionist prevail though clearly option #2 is the worst possible outcome and option #3 is the best one. In truth, the AngloZionists have very little to lose in a Ukronazi attack on Novorussia." Again, one has to wonder about this incomplete and erroneous "analysis", and especially the conclusion - is the writer really that stupid or is there an underlying agenda?

This dude is pushing the defeatist line that "in all three cases the Anglozionists win", that "Option #2 (Novorussia wins) is the worst possible outcome" and "#3 (A neocon dream come true) is the best", and that the nazis "have very little to lose" in an attack on Novorussia. THESE ARE HIS EXACT WORDS!  He is literally saying Novorussia (and Russia) cannot win, and the nazis have little to lose by attacking us. Whose fuckin' side is this dude on?!  The last time Russia faced such an existential threat as we do today was in the Great Patriotic War, in which defeatism such as "The Saker's" was dealt with by firing squad.  Oh, for the good old days...

On behalf of Novorussia, my country, where I live, and which I fight to defend, I and my friends and comrades here would like to say to "The Saker" and his credulous sycophants, "Spasiba bolshoy, mazavagas! With friends like you, who needs enemies?" And I'll also be happy to straighten your asses out as to what's really happening here, what is most probably going to happen, and what the outcome will be. Since you obviously have no clue.

First, my qualifications for having an opinion - I'm not some dude from Florida with mysterious or perhaps mythical (or perhaps treacherous) "connections to US intelligence", I am a soldier in the Novorussian Armed Forces and a citizen of the Donetsk People's Republic. I have been here full time since 2014, was in frontline combat positions as recently as two months ago (as a soldier) and in frontline civilian areas two weeks ago, reporting on ukrop war crimes.  My opinion is based on firsthand experience, what I see with my own eyes, and my own personal contact with people who live at the Front, and with the soldiers who defend them there.  

The major ukrop offensive is inevitable in 2018. Not the "Frog jump pseudo strategy that is already happening", but a real all-out war offensive, even bigger than the offensive of Summer 2014.

The political circus in Kiev is not sustainable until the ukrop elections of 2019. With the antics of (now convicted) stateless fugitive Sakashvili and Poroshenko's single digit approval ratings, a genuine civilian uprising or a military coup by actually patriotic ukrainian officers are both very real possibilities (completely overlooked by the Saker) that can only be precluded by an all-out war in Donbass.
The clock is ticking in Kiev.

The Russian Presidential elections in March  and the FIFA football championships in June/July 2018 are both major distractions that would complicate a Russian response to a ukrop attack immensely. These are strategic opportunities for our enemies, the likes of which will not occur again in the operational timetable of the Donbass War. The clock is ticking in Russia.

Though the USA still has its Canadian lapdog, Europe is becoming less and less enamored by the failed state on its borders. While the massive influx of Ukrainian toilet cleaners and prostitutes may have some utility or appeal to certain strata of European society, the instability and threat of another major war engulfing Europe give even EU fascist lackeys pause. The longer the delay, the less support from Europe. The US needs to start the war soon, and drag Europe into it by presenting a fait accompli before Europe comes to its senses and officially stands up against the ukrop nazis and their US masters. The clock is ticking in Europe.

Is the clock ticking in the USA? I don't know, I don't live there. But I think so. Maybe ask "The Saker"... He might be qualified to have an opinion about that.

Also, the recent decision by Trump (and Canada) to send weapons to ukrop nazis can only be seen as a green light for war.  There are about 100,000 nazis on the ukrop side of the line, being continually reinforced by Western mercenaries and special forces, as well as by the US-backed ISIS cannibals who have been run out of Syria and Iraq, evacuated by the USA and brought to Ukraine. These nazis, mercs and terrorists are not there for a picnic, and they will not simply withdraw back to bases in Western Ukraine. They are here to attack, and that is what they are going to do in 2018.  The chance is not "Medium", as "The Saker" sees it, it is actually inevitable. And anyone who pins their hopes on Trump having the intelligence or integrity to stop this war can only be laughed at.  As, of course, can all, like "The Saker", who naively thought Trump would be any different than the USA's Presidential Parade of Clowns  going back at least 50 years now.  Trump the hapless and impotent shrinking violet, who talks big but is incapable of doing shit. The female version of Hillary Clinton.

So, yes, the war IS coming in 2018, and probably sooner than later. The Russian Presidential elections in March will (incorrectly) be seen as a golden opportunity by the nazis, and if they chicken out (as usual) then, they will have another, better, and final opportunity during or right before the FIFA championships, which is when I predict the attack on Donbass will come, along with simultaneous major terrorist events inside the Russian Federation. So, the war is coming. What will happen?

I can tell you from my contact with both soldiers and civilians who live on the front lines in Donbass that we are ready. And not just "ready" in the sense of being prepared, but also ready to get this over with. The predominate sentiment among those who have been and will be most effected by the war is that "The sooner it comes, the sooner it will be over. So, the sooner, the better."  And they are correct.

I do not know what the sentiment is among the patrons of fancy restaurants on Pushkin Boulevard, or among those for whom the war is a comfortable and profitable business, because I do not move in those circles, and they are only a very small minority here. But for the vast majority of the patriot citizens of the Republic, who understand the war IS coming, and what it will entail, we are prepared, and grimly determined to meet the fascists head on, and to teach them the lesson our grandfathers taught theirs back in 1945.

As for what the war will be like - I too have anonymous sources, in the military of the DNR and also from... "elsewhere". These guys know what the war will be like because they are the ones who will personally fight it. And win it. First, when the big ukrop attack comes, it will not be a surprise to anyone, except perhaps "The Saker" and his fans. But the Novorussian Armies, and "our friends", will know well in advance the exact time and place and every detail of the plan. And we will be ready and waiting. Of course, the initial assault will cause mass casualties among our defenders on the frontline positions and among civilians living near the Front. Among the NAF soldiers on frontline positions, 50% casualties are expected within the first 12 hours. The deaths will be in the thousands.
So be it. This is war.

But this is war of the full military might of a national army against civilians and former citizens. It will provide the moral, political and practical justification for a total military response from the Russian Federation. Vladimir Putin himself has said more than once that this will indeed be Russia's response, and Vladimir don't lie. It will be a war between the Russian and Ukrainian armies, and it will be over in 48 hours at the most.  Plenty has been written about it, and friends and enemies agree, there is no doubt about the military outcome of the conflict. Imagine a street fight between Vladimir Putin, who holds black belts in several martial arts, and Poroshenko, a pampered, drunken, cowardly buffoon. It would be like that. That quick and that decisive, and the loser will never stand up again.

So, no serious person can question the military outcome, but what of further political and economic considerations? From the Russian and Novorussian perspective, it is the best possible outcome. Having a foreign-controlled failed fascist state on the borders (of Russia and Novorussia) is truly an existential threat. Like a gangrenous wound, it will not get better, and must be dealt with. Like we said, "the sooner the better."  Did the successful and elegant military intervention in Syria cause political backlash against Putin? Hardly. It was wildly popular at home, and increased Russia's stature politically and militarily around the world.  And in spite of what "The Saker" and his neocon buddies might think, the liberation of Ukraine will do the same, only more so.  It will stabilize and de-nazify the failed state of Ukraine, and re-integrate Ukraine into the Russian orbit where it belongs.

"The Saker" says open intervention will be a "neocon's dream come true", "NATO will have a purpose, and it will start  "Cold War 2.0".  Perhaps he didn't get the memo, but the New Cold War started 4 years ago, and has continued to be escalated by neocon war-mongers in every way possible ever since.  Does he think that if Russia allows Ukraine to continue to fester, NATO won't continue escalations and provocations?  That certainly seems to be what he is advocating. Fortunately, the people who count, in Russia and Novorussia, neither need nor heed his advice.

And far from Russian intervention being "Low Risk" for neocon fascists, it will be the beginning of their end. When clowns like Trump and Haley try to rally international support for further sanctions against Russia for a successful and clearly necessary move, that will be the moment the EU rats will jump the sinking ship of Empire. Perhaps somewhat for the clear moral implications, but much, much more so for the practical implications. Russia will have won the war against ukrop fascism before Trump can even tweet about it, and after the fact, all Trump will be able to do is tweet about it. And who wants to side with a loud-mouthed, whining loser?

So, in summary, yes, the war is coming, yes we will win it, locally and on the global scale, politically, economically and militarily.  And Russia will not only be on the winning side of the war, we will be on the right side of morality and of history.  The US/Anglozionist Empire will soon be flushed from history, and their citizens will reap the consequences and just deserts that inevitably befall fools, cowards, the self-deluded, and willing slaves. 2018 will be a decisive year. We are already at war. We are already winning, and we will win. May God protect the innocent, and may the rest of us get everything we deserve.